Forecast Brew | june 19th, 2025

Jun 19, 2025

On Polymarket, there is a 63% chance that the U.S. will take military action against Iran before July, while Manifold shows a 60% probability that the U.S. will bomb Iran specifically in June.
These rising odds follow Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iran’s ballistic missile retaliation against Israel. President Trump has publicly called for “complete victory” over Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons and acknowledged that only U.S. forces can neutralize Iran’s fortified Fordow site. While not yet committing to immediate action, Trump has hinted at strikes, calling for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and urging evacuations of Tehran. His inner circle is reportedly leaning toward military options, fueling expectations of imminent U.S. intervention.

Iran: Quite Likely Khamenei Out as Supreme Leader in 2025

On Polymarket, there is a 62% probability that Ayatollah Khamenei will no longer be Iran’s Supreme Leader by the end of 2025. Alongside this, Polymarket assigns a 40% probability that the entire Iranian regime will fall this year.
The probability has risen amid the escalating Iran-Israel conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has openly called for regime change in Iran, and Khamenei himself may be a military target. President Trump recently posted on Truth Social: “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — we are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.”

On Manifold, the probability President Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act during his term has risen to 46%, up from 33% at the start of June, while Kalshi puts the odds even higher at 60%, up from 44%.
The Insurrection Act allows the President to deploy active-duty military personnel to quell unrest when local forces are unable to do so. Since early June, large protests have erupted in Los Angeles over aggressive federal immigration raids, with escalating violence and clashes. Trump has already deployed thousands of National Guard troops and 700 active-duty Marines to support local law enforcement. However, active-duty troops cannot directly enforce civilian law without invoking the Insurrection Act. Trump has publicly said he is considering doing so, stating: “If there’s an insurrection, I would certainly invoke it,”.

Kalshi markets show California Governor Gavin Newsom as the early favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination, holding a slight lead at 14%. He’s followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10%, Pete Buttigieg at 9%, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 7%.
On the Republican side, J.D. Vance leads with 42%, well ahead of Tulsi Gabbard at 9% and Marco Rubio at 8%. While it’s still early in the cycle, the markets suggest Vance is consolidating strong support, while the Democratic field remains more open.

Metaculus forecasters now give a 50% probability that nuclear deterrence will no longer hold within five years of artificial general intelligence (AGI) being achieved.
For the past 80 years, nuclear deterrence has been credited with maintaining relative global peace. However, experts now warn that AGI-driven military advancements could render nuclear threats obsolete.
As Leopold Aschenbrenner, a German AI researcher, notes in Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, superintelligent systems could develop decisive capabilities—such as advanced sensor networks to track nuclear submarines, swarms of autonomous drones to sabotage arsenals, and mass-produced interceptors to neutralize missiles—undermining traditional deterrence. In this scenario, even preemptive strikes on nuclear forces could become feasible, ending the strategic balance that has shaped modern geopolitics.