Forecast Brew | june 26th, 2025
Where Oliver and Guillaume explore geopolitical risks by curating predictions from forecasting tournaments and markets
Iran-Israel War Very Likely to Be Over by July
For now, prediction markets do not expect the war between Israel and Iran to continue. The probability that the conflict will end before July is 73% on Polymarket and 75% on Manifold.
Israel’s strikes on Iran on June 13 started an air war, which the US later joined by bombing three nuclear facilities in Iran. The conflict came to a provisional end on Tuesday, with US President Trump declaring a ceasefire and both Israel and Iran claiming victory in the war.
Probability of US-Iran Nuclear Deal in 2025 Slightly on the Rise Again
After the ceasefire with Israel and de-escalatory talks with the US, the likelihood of regime change in Iran has decreased. On Polymarket, the odds of the Iranian regime falling this year are 21%, and those of Ali Khamenei being removed as Supreme Leader are 37%.
Israeli PM Netanyahu, as well as US President Trump, had brought regime change into play, with Netanyahu stating that it is what Israel’s operations might lead to in the long run. Trump backed down on Tuesday, saying he no longer wants regime change, as it would only result in chaos.
Decreased Likelihood of Regime Change in Iran
After the ceasefire with Israel and de-escalatory talks with the US, the likelihood of regime change in Iran has decreased. On Polymarket, the odds of the Iranian regime falling this year are 21%, and those of Ali Khamenei being removed as Supreme Leader are 37%.
Israeli PM Netanyahu, as well as US President Trump, had brought regime change into play, with Netanyahu stating that it is what Israel’s operations might lead to in the long run. Trump backed down on Tuesday, saying he no longer wants regime change, as it would only result in chaos.
Spain: Increased Probability of Pedro Sánchez Leaving Office as PM in 2025
The chances of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez leaving office this year have increased. The probability has doubled over the past two weeks, reaching 50% on Kalshi and 45% on Polymarket, where the likelihood of snap elections in Spain in 2025 stands at 54%.
Sánchez has been under pressure for a while, after both his wife and his brother were investigated for alleged corruption and influence-peddling. In addition, new revelations and accusations of corruption and kickbacks among top members of his Socialist party, PSOE, came to light in mid-June.
Tesla’s Driverless Robotaxi Expected to Launch in 2025
Prediction markets expect Tesla to launch a public robotaxi service later this year, with a 74% probability on Polymarket, 74% on Manifold, and 80% on Kalshi.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has envisioned robotaxis as the future alternative to traditional car ownership and public transport in cities. Last weekend, Tesla started a driverless robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, open to a limited number of riders by invitation only. Videos of various incidents involving the driverless cars caught the attention of US regulators.